⚠️ Market Extreme Risk Dashboard

A transparent, rules-based early-warning system for tail risk. Extreme Risk = S&P 500 drawdown >50%.

Last refreshed: 2026-10-13 20:46:51 UTC

S&P 500

7,805.45

-0.02%

1D · Open

Nasdaq 100

30,569.48

-0.31%

1D · Open

Dow Jones

51,670.10

-0.35%

1D · Open

Russell 2000

2,783.37

-0.40%

1D · Open

Extreme Risk Score

17/100

NORMAL

Recession Stress

0/10

RULES-BASED

VIX

15.21

Normal

HY OAS

3.11%

Normal

Overall regime: NORMAL

Market Risk Summary

The overall market risk regime is currently classified as NORMAL with an aggregate risk score of 17/100. Macroeconomic and sentiment indicators remain largely benign. Credit markets are functioning normally, and tail-risk pricing does not currently indicate elevated panic among institutional investors. Specifically, critical warnings have been triggered by SKEW Index, High-Beta/Low-Vol Ratio. Additionally, CCC Spread, 10Y Treasury, 10Y-2Y, Oil are currently on our watch list for emerging stress.

Early-warning indicators

Volatility & Market Stress

VIX

15.21

-0.31 1w

Normal

Trigger: >= 30

Credit Stress

HY Spread

3.11%

-0.01 1w

Normal

Trigger: >= 5%

BB Spread

1.88%

-0.05 1w

Normal

CCC Spread

12.53%

+0.42 1w

Watch

Trigger: >= 13%

Financial Conditions

-0.49%

+0.03 1w

Normal

Trigger: >= 1.0

Rates & Liquidity

10Y Treasury

5.24%

-0.04 1w

Watch

2Y Treasury

4.80%

-0.03 1w

Info

10Y-2Y

0.44%

-0.01 1w

Watch

10Y-3M

0.99%

-0.10 1w

Normal

Trigger: < 0%

SOFR

3.87%

-0.01 1w

Info

Fed Funds

3.75%

Info

23,342.80

Info

Inflation

CPI

334.13

Info

Core CPI

337.76

Info

PPI

287.93

Info

10Y Breakeven

2.33%

-0.03 1w

Normal

Trigger: >= 3.5%

Growth & Labor

Unemployment

4.20

Normal

Trigger: >= 5.5%

Initial Claims

197,000.00

-1000.00 1w

Info

Continuing Claims

1,716,000.00

+17000.00 1w

Info

Real GDP

—

N/A

Retail Sales

737,763.00

Info

Industrial Production

103.07

Info

Consumer Sentiment

51.70

Info

Market Sentiment & Breadth

AI/Semiconductor Breadth

$588.12

-44.38 1w

Normal

Trigger: < 200 DMA (200DMA: $508.50)

SKEW Index

155.06

+12.02 1w

Warning

Trigger: >= 140

High-Beta/Low-Vol Ratio

2.059

-0.127 1w

Warning

Trigger: < 10-day MA (Falling)

Commodities

Copper/Gold Ratio

0.002

+0.000 1w

Normal

Trigger: < 10-day MA (Falling)

Lumber/Gold Ratio

0.131

+0.005 1w

Normal

Trigger: < 10-day MA (Falling)

Oil

$94.96

+5.52 1w

Watch

Trigger: > $110

Trend monitor (1 Year)

Extreme Risk trigger matrix

Indicator	Trigger	Why it matters
VIX	>= 30	Volatility regime shift
HY Spread	>= 5%	Credit stress
CCC Spread	>= 13%	Distressed credit
10Y-3M	< 0%	Yield-curve recession signal
Unemployment	>= 5.5%	Labor deterioration
10Y Breakeven	>= 3.5%	Inflation expectations
Financial Conditions	>= 1.0	Tight financial conditions
S&P 500	below 200-day MA by >10%	Trend break
AI/semiconductor breadth	multiple leaders below 200DMA	AI capex cycle warning
Oil	> $110	Stagflation/geopolitical shock